Poverty rates in the United States are not clearly increasing right now, but they are not straightforwardly decreasing either. The official U.S. poverty rate fell to 10.6 percent in 2024, down 0.4 percentage points from 2023, covering about 35.9 million people.1U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty in the United States: 2024 The Supplemental Poverty Measure, which counts government benefits and subtracts taxes and expenses like medical costs, held statistically flat at 12.9 percent, covering 43.7 million people.2Institute for Research on Poverty. Who Experiences Poverty? Both figures remain above pandemic-era lows, deep poverty grew worse, child poverty is still more than double its 2021 level, and several policy changes enacted in 2025 are projected to push rates upward in the years ahead.
How the Rate Has Moved Since 2020
The direction depends heavily on where you start counting. In 2020 and 2021, federal relief spending — stimulus payments, expanded unemployment insurance, and an enlarged Child Tax Credit — drove poverty to historic lows. The SPM rate actually fell below the official rate during those years, a reversal caused by the volume of government transfers reaching households.2Institute for Research on Poverty. Who Experiences Poverty?
When those emergency programs expired, poverty snapped back. The official rate rose to 11.5 percent in 2022 and the SPM to 12.4 percent.3U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty in the United States: 2022 In 2023, the official rate was 11.1 percent and the SPM 12.9 percent.4U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty in the United States: 2023 Researchers at the Columbia Center on Poverty and Social Policy described the period since 2022 as one in which poverty rates returned to and “somewhat exceeded” pre-pandemic levels before beginning to ease.5Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy. 2024 Poverty Rates in Historical Perspective
The 2024 numbers are a partial recovery. The official rate is the lowest reading since the pandemic lows, though still above 2019. The SPM held flat rather than falling, which is the better indicator of how families are actually doing once benefits and expenses are factored in. So compared to 2023, poverty is slightly down or level. Compared to 2021, it is well up. Compared to what is projected for the second half of the decade, it may be about to rise.
Deep Poverty Got Deeper
The headline rate can move in one direction while conditions for the poorest households move in another, and that is what happened in 2024. Deep poverty — incomes below half the official poverty threshold — covered 5.0 percent of the population, roughly 16.8 million people. The share of people in poverty who fell into this deepest tier jumped from 34 percent in 2023 to 47.8 percent in 2024.6UC Davis Center for Poverty and Inequality Research. What Is the Current Poverty Rate in the United States? Fewer people were poor, but those who remained poor were on average further below the line than the year before.
Child Poverty Remains Sharply Elevated
No group shows a clearer post-pandemic increase than children. The 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit, which sent families up to $300 per month per child, cut the SPM child poverty rate roughly in half, from 9.7 percent to 5.2 percent. When the expansion lapsed at the end of 2021, the rate more than doubled to 12.4 percent in 2022, pushing roughly five million additional children into poverty.7PBS NewsHour. Child Poverty Increases Sharply Following Expiration of Expanded Tax Credit It climbed further to 13.7 percent in 2023 and stood at 13 percent in 2024.8Annie E. Casey Foundation. Child Poverty Nearly Triples to 13% Over Three Years
Children’s HealthWatch cited research estimating that if the expanded credit had still been in effect in 2023, the child poverty rate would have been 8.6 percent rather than 13.7 percent.9Children’s HealthWatch. With Child Poverty on the Rise, 2025 Offers a Key Opportunity to Expand the Child Tax Credit The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in July 2025, raised the maximum Child Tax Credit from $2,000 to $2,200 but kept refundability restrictions that prevent the poorest families from receiving the full amount, and added a requirement that at least one parent have a Social Security Number to claim it.10Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Child Tax Credit 2026: OBBBA and Trump Taxes
Who Bore the Increase
Under the official measure in 2024, the poverty rate was 7.6 percent for non-Hispanic white Americans, 18.4 percent for Black Americans, 15.0 percent for Hispanic Americans, 19.3 percent for American Indian and Alaska Native people, and 7.5 percent for Asian Americans. Under the SPM, Black Americans were at 20.7 percent, Hispanic Americans at 20.3 percent, and American Indian and Alaska Native people at 19.8 percent, roughly double the 8.7 percent rate for non-Hispanic white Americans.11U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty in the United States: 2024 (Full Report)
One movement inside the 2024 data cuts against the flat national SPM: the SPM rate for Black Americans rose by 2.2 percentage points between 2023 and 2024, a divergence none of the other major racial or ethnic groups experienced.11U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty in the United States: 2024 (Full Report) For that group, poverty did increase.
Older Americans depend heavily on Social Security to stay above the line. The official 2024 poverty rate for adults 65 and older was 10.3 percent, but without Social Security, 37.6 percent would fall below the poverty line; the program lifted nearly 17 million older adults out of poverty. The SPM rate for seniors was higher at 15.0 percent because it subtracts out-of-pocket medical costs. Without Social Security, poverty rates for Black and Latino seniors would reach roughly 50 and 45 percent, respectively.12Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Social Security Lifts More People Above the Poverty Line Than Any Other Program
Geography matters too. In 2024, Louisiana had the highest state poverty rate at 18.7 percent and New Hampshire the lowest at 7.2 percent.13USAFacts. What Is the US Poverty Rate?
Policy Changes Projected to Push Rates Up
Several 2025 policy shifts are expected to raise poverty rates in the coming years, and some are already showing effects.
SNAP and Medicaid Cuts
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, reduced federal spending on Medicaid and SNAP by over $1 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the lowest-income 10 percent of households would be worse off by an average of $1,200 per year, while the highest-income 10 percent would gain an average of $13,600 per year.14National Low Income Housing Coalition. Impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The law expanded SNAP work requirements to adults up to age 64 (from 54) and parents of children 14 and older, and eliminated previous exemptions for veterans, people experiencing homelessness, and former foster youth under 24. CBO projected roughly 2.4 million people would lose SNAP benefits in an average month over the coming decade.15KFF. A Look at the Intersection of SNAP and Medicaid as States Implement Medicaid Work Requirements Actual declines have run steeper. Between July 2025 and January 2026, SNAP participation fell by more than 3 million people, an 8 percent drop, with every state showing a decline. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities noted that the national unemployment rate remained flat at 4 percent during this period, making it “very unlikely that reduced need is driving the decline.”16Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. SNAP Tracker: People Are Losing Food Assistance as the Republican Megabill Takes Effect An analysis from the American Enterprise Institute acknowledged the decline exceeds CBO projections, attributed part of the gap to seasonal factors and post-pandemic caseload adjustments, and noted that January 2026 SNAP enrollment still remained above pre-pandemic levels.17American Enterprise Institute. Understanding the Recent Declines in SNAP Participation
Starting January 1, 2027, Medicaid expansion enrollees will need to complete 80 hours per month of work or community engagement to keep coverage.15KFF. A Look at the Intersection of SNAP and Medicaid as States Implement Medicaid Work Requirements The Urban Institute projects between 4.9 and 10.1 million people could lose Medicaid expansion coverage by 2028 as a result of the work requirements combined with new six-month eligibility redeterminations, with declines in every expansion state ranging from 18 percent in the best case to 68 percent where administrative infrastructure is weakest.18Urban Institute. Projected Reductions in Medicaid Expansion Enrollment Under OBBBA’s Work Requirements and Six-Month Redeterminations The Urban Institute also found that many people who meet the work requirements or qualify for exemptions may still lose coverage because of paperwork and verification burdens; self-employed workers, people aged 50 to 64, and those with health conditions that limit their ability to work are especially vulnerable.19Urban Institute. Projected Reductions in Medicaid Expansion Enrollment Under OBBBA’s Work Requirements and Six-Month Redeterminations CBO’s separate estimate projected 5.3 million more uninsured people over the coming decade from the Medicaid work requirements alone.
Tariffs and Prices
The Trump administration’s 2025 tariff actions add price pressure. An analysis by The Budget Lab at Yale estimated that tariff-driven price increases would push between 650,000 and 875,000 additional Americans into poverty, including up to 375,000 children, because tariffs raise consumer prices while low-income household incomes do not adjust upward as quickly.20The Budget Lab at Yale. The Effect of Tariffs on Poverty
Why Two Poverty Rates Point Different Directions
Much of the confusion about whether poverty is rising comes from two different measures. The Official Poverty Measure dates to the 1960s and compares pretax cash income to a threshold based originally on a minimum food diet. It does not count noncash benefits like SNAP or housing assistance, does not subtract taxes or work expenses, and does not adjust for regional costs. It remains the standard for determining eligibility for most federal assistance programs; for 2026, the federal poverty guideline for a family of four in the 48 contiguous states is $33,000.21U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 2026 Poverty Guidelines Computations22U.S. Census Bureau. Difference Between Supplemental and Official Poverty Measures
The Supplemental Poverty Measure counts government benefits, subtracts taxes and necessary expenses like medical costs and child care, and adjusts thresholds for regional housing costs. It generally produces higher rates than the OPM but can show lower rates when generous transfers are flowing, as happened in 2020 and 2021. That makes the SPM the better tool for judging how policy changes affect real economic hardship.23Institute for Research on Poverty. How Is Poverty Measured?
What the Near Future Looks Like
The Columbia Center on Poverty and Social Policy found that long-term U.S. poverty reduction since the 1960s is “almost entirely driven” by government taxes and transfers. In 2024, taxes and transfers cut the SPM poverty rate by roughly 46 percent compared to what it would have been without them.5Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy. 2024 Poverty Rates in Historical Perspective Social Security alone prevented nearly 29 million people of all ages from falling into SPM poverty.1U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty in the United States: 2024
That is what makes the 2025 changes consequential. SNAP rolls are already down more than 3 million. Medicaid work requirements start in 2027. Tariff-driven prices are already in the economy. The expanded Child Tax Credit has not been restored. The 2025 poverty figures, due from the Census Bureau in late 2026, will be the first comprehensive read on whether those shifts have begun to show up in the national numbers.