The USDA Hogs and Pigs report is the federal government’s official quarterly inventory of every domestic pig in the United States, published by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). It tracks the total national herd, the breeding population, and market animals headed to slaughter, broken down by weight class and across 16 individually reported states. As of March 1, 2026, the U.S. inventory stood at 74.3 million head, down about 1 percent from a year earlier.1United States Department of Agriculture. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs 03/26/2026
What the Report Counts
The data falls into three main buckets. Total inventory is the headcount of every hog and pig in the country. The breeding herd covers boars and sows kept for reproduction. Market hog inventory covers animals destined for slaughter, split into four weight tiers: under 50 pounds, 50–119 pounds, 120–179 pounds, and 180 pounds and over.2United States Department of Agriculture. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Those weight classes tell processors roughly when animals will reach market weight, which drives slaughter scheduling weeks out.
Two additional figures carry outsized weight. The pig crop counts pigs born alive during a given quarter that are still owned by the operation or have already been sold or slaughtered by the reference date; pigs that die of illness, injury, or other non-slaughter causes before that date are excluded.3National Agricultural Statistics Service. Hogs and Pigs – What Is Included in NASS Estimates Sows farrowing counts the females that gave birth during the same window. Divide one by the other and you get pigs per litter, a proxy for the industry’s biological efficiency. When litter sizes trend up, more pork hits the market roughly five to six months later, all else equal.
The report publishes individual estimates for 16 major hog-producing states plus a national total. States not listed individually are folded into an “Other States” line so the national figure still captures every animal.4Economics, Statistics, and Market Information System. Hogs and Pigs A disease outbreak in one state may barely register nationally but shows up clearly in the state-level data.
Why the Breeding Herd and Farrowing Intentions Drive the Report
Most of the report’s price-moving power lives in the breeding herd and farrowing intentions numbers. Expanding the breeding herd takes months. Producers have to retain gilts, breed them, and wait through gestation, so a jump in breeding inventory today translates to higher market supplies well into the following year. A shrinking breeding herd signals the opposite.
The farrowing intentions section, which projects how many sows producers plan to breed in the upcoming two quarters, is the most forward-looking data point in the release. Markets often react more strongly to farrowing intentions than to any other line because those intentions shape supply expectations roughly six months out.
When the Report Comes Out and Where to Find It
Reports are published quarterly, typically in late March, June, September, and December. Each edition reflects the inventory as of the first day of that month, and the data goes public at 3:00 PM Eastern Time. The 2026 remaining release dates are June 25, September 24, and December 23.4Economics, Statistics, and Market Information System. Hogs and Pigs The full PDF and machine-readable data are available for immediate download through the USDA Economics, Statistics, and Market Information System (ESMIS).
Because the numbers come from a stratified random sample of hog operations rather than a barn-by-barn census, the published figures are statistical estimates. NASS publishes the methodology and quality measures alongside each release so users can see the margins involved.5National Agricultural Statistics Service. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Methodology and Quality Measures
How the Report Moves Lean Hog Futures
The Hogs and Pigs report is the single most important fundamental data release for lean hog futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.6CME Group. Lean Hogs Product Overview Analysts publish consensus estimates for the key categories in the days before each release. When the actual USDA numbers land close to those expectations, markets barely flinch. When they don’t, prices can move sharply within minutes of 3:00 PM.
The breeding herd and pig crop numbers tend to generate the biggest reactions because they shape supply projections months out. A larger-than-expected pig crop tells the market that more pork will reach slaughter facilities later in the year, which puts downward pressure on deferred futures contracts. A smaller breeding herd signals tighter supplies ahead and tends to push prices higher. Weight-class data matters more for the nearby contract months, since heavier animals are closer to being market-ready.
Producers and processors use the report for direct risk management. A farmer who sees confirmation of a large pig crop might lock in current prices by selling futures or buying puts before the anticipated oversupply arrives. Packers watching the weight-class breakdowns use that data to plan labor shifts and transportation logistics months ahead.
Companion Reports Worth Watching
The Hogs and Pigs report doesn’t stand alone. The USDA Cold Storage report tracks how much frozen pork sits in warehouses across the country. When cold storage inventories are low at the same time the Hogs and Pigs report shows limited supply growth, that combination amplifies upside price risk. As of February 2026, total pork in cold storage stood at 403.5 million pounds, roughly 13 percent below the five-year average and the lowest February figure in over 25 years. Belly inventories were at their lowest since 2021, and pork trim stocks were down 8 percent year over year.
USDA weekly slaughter data lets analysts check whether the quarterly projections are tracking reality. If the report projected a certain number of market-ready hogs but weekly slaughter counts come in lower, that gap can signal either backed-up supply (bearish for prices later) or herd liquidation that already happened (bullish going forward). Experienced traders cross-reference all three data sets rather than leaning on any one.
Reading a Release for the First Time
The format is more approachable than the length suggests. The front page carries a brief narrative summary highlighting the headline changes from the prior quarter and the same quarter a year ago. The tables that follow present national and state-level data with both the current estimate and the year-ago comparison, so you can spot expansion or contraction at a glance.
Focus on year-over-year percentage changes, not raw headcounts. A national inventory of 74.3 million is meaningless in a vacuum; knowing it is down 1 percent from the prior year tells you something about the direction of supply.1United States Department of Agriculture. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs 03/26/2026 Then work through the breeding herd number, the pig crop, and the farrowing intentions in that order. Those three lines carry most of the forward-looking information the market will price in.