Recent estimates of how many illegal immigrants live in the US range from about 12 million to over 15 million, with the Pew Research Center’s figure of 14 million as of 2023 the most widely cited. That is a record high, up sharply from around 10.5 million in 2021 and above the previous peak of 12.2 million set in 2007. No single count is definitive, because people without legal status have strong reasons to avoid government surveys, so researchers publish ranges rather than exact totals.
The Current Estimates Side by Side
Four organizations produce the numbers you are most likely to see quoted, and they do not agree.
The Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics put the unauthorized population at 11.0 million as of January 2022, up from 10.5 million in January 2020.1Department of Homeland Security. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States January 2018-January 2022 That is the most recent official federal estimate, and it predates the sharpest period of growth. DHS has not released a figure covering the 2022-2023 surge.
Pew estimated 14 million as of 2023, using the 2023 American Community Survey. The 3.5 million increase over two years was the largest two-year jump on record.2Pew Research Center. Record 14 Million Unauthorized Immigrants Lived in the US in 2023 About 6 million of those 14 million had some form of protection from deportation, such as DACA or Temporary Protected Status, meaning roughly 8 million had no legal shield at all.
The Center for Migration Studies published a 2023 estimate of 12.2 million, up from 10.3 million in 2021.3The Center for Migration Studies of New York. Democratizing Data Initiative CMS had earlier put mid-2023 at a provisional 11.7 million before revising the figure upward.4The Center for Migration Studies of New York. US Undocumented Population Increased to 11.7 Million in July 2023
The Center for Immigration Studies, which favors lower immigration levels, produced the highest recent figures. CIS estimated 15.4 million in the January 2025 Current Population Survey, a rise of more than 50 percent over four years.5Center for Immigration Studies. Foreign-Born Number and Share of US Population at All-Time Highs in January 2025 By July 2025, CIS put the population at 14.2 million, a decline of roughly 1.6 million that the organization attributed to increased enforcement and changed border policies.6Center for Immigration Studies. Overall Foreign-Born Population Down 2.2 Million January to July
The gap between the lowest and highest recent estimates exceeds 3 million people. Which number you see in a news story depends heavily on who produced it and when.
Why the Numbers Disagree
Every major organization uses a version of the same method and still lands on different totals. Three factors compound on each other.
First, the underlying survey. Pew relies on the American Community Survey; CIS mainly uses the Current Population Survey.7Pew Research Center. Methodology A – Unauthorized Immigrant Estimates These surveys sample different numbers of households, ask slightly different questions, and see different response rates in immigrant communities. Different raw data produces different results.
Second, the undercount adjustment. Because unauthorized immigrants respond to surveys at lower rates than other groups, researchers add a correction on top of the raw residual. Recent Pew estimates add roughly 5 to 7 percent, though the adjustment for specific subgroups like younger men can be higher. CIS tends to apply larger corrections, which partly explains its consistently higher totals. Adjustments in earlier decades ran as high as 10 to 20 percent.
Third, timing. Border encounters spiked in 2022 and 2023, so any estimate anchored to data from before that period will look low next to one that captures it. DHS’s 11 million reflects January 2022. Pew’s 14 million reflects 2023. Comparing them without noting the different snapshots makes them look like they disagree when the real story is when each was measured.
How Anyone Counts a Hidden Population
Every major estimate uses the residual method. The logic is simple: start with the total foreign-born population counted in a census or survey, then subtract everyone in the country legally. Whatever is left is the estimated unauthorized population.8Social Security Administration. Measuring the Number of Unauthorized Immigrants in the United States – A Review of the Residual Estimation Method
The subtraction step means assembling counts of every legal category: naturalized citizens, green card holders, refugees, valid work and student visa holders, and people with protections like DACA or TPS. Researchers pull those counts from DHS admissions data, State Department records, and demographic modeling that estimates how many previously admitted immigrants have since died or left.7Pew Research Center. Methodology A – Unauthorized Immigrant Estimates The undercount adjustment then gets layered on top.
The Census Bureau itself collects data on all foreign-born residents regardless of legal status but does not separately tabulate unauthorized immigrants.9U.S. Census Bureau. About the Foreign-Born Population The government does not publish a direct count. Outside researchers analyze census data to produce the estimates you see.
What Changed After 2020
For more than a decade, the unauthorized population was stable. It peaked around 12.2 million in 2007, gradually declined, and then held near 10.5 million through about 2019.2Pew Research Center. Record 14 Million Unauthorized Immigrants Lived in the US in 2023 That stability ended abruptly. Border encounters surged starting in 2021, and by 2023 the population had grown by an estimated 3.5 million in two years.
Several factors converged. Pandemic-era economic disruption hit Latin American countries hard. Political crises in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Haiti drove new migration flows that had not existed at scale before. The resumption of international travel combined with asylum processing backlogs meant large numbers entered and stayed while their cases moved through overwhelmed immigration courts.
By early 2025, the trend appeared to reverse. CIS estimated a drop of roughly 1.6 million between January and July 2025 and attributed it to heightened enforcement, changed border policies, and a deterrent effect from political rhetoric.6Center for Immigration Studies. Overall Foreign-Born Population Down 2.2 Million January to July CIS cautioned that some of the apparent decline could reflect people avoiding the survey rather than actually leaving the country, and that administrative data needed to finalize the estimate was still incomplete.
Where They Come From
Mexico is still the single largest source country, but its dominance has faded. About 5.5 million unauthorized immigrants were Mexican-born as of 2023, roughly 40 percent of the total. That is well below the 2007 peak of about 7.8 million.10Population Research Institute. New Estimates Reveal Size and Heterogeneity of Unauthorized Immigrant Population
Central America now accounts for a much larger share. Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador combined represented about 26 percent of the unauthorized population in 2023, roughly 3.6 million people. Venezuela, negligible as a source country before 2017, had grown to nearly half a million. South America overall accounted for about 12 percent, with significant numbers from Colombia and Brazil. Asian countries contributed about 6 percent, and African nations about 3 percent.
Where They Live
Unauthorized immigrants are not spread evenly across the country. California alone accounts for about 21 percent of the total, Texas for 14 percent, Florida for 9 percent, and New York for 6 percent. Together those four states are home to roughly half the unauthorized population.
That concentration has been loosening. States in the Southeast and Mountain West that once had small immigrant populations have seen significant growth, spreading demand for immigration legal services, language access, and consular support into places where those systems were not built for rapid population change.